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Ceasefire Within a Ceasefire: Israel-Lebanon Truce Tests Trump's Iran Strategy
Standfirst: As a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon takes hold, the deeper question is whether the broader US-Iran ceasefire — built on Pakistan's unlikely diplomacy — can survive the competing demands of Beirut, Tehran, and Netanyahu's refusal to leave Lebanese territory.
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On Friday, Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz to all commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire period, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on X, calling it a "gesture of goodwill." The announcement marked a quiet but significant de-escalation signal from Tehran at the close of a week in which the US-Iran conflict narrowly avoided a full regional war.
The developments followed the taking effect, at 21:00 GMT on Thursday, of a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon — arranged by President Donald Trump — after weeks of Israeli bombardment and a ground incursion into southern Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it "an opportunity to make a historic peace agreement with Lebanon." But the terms Netanyahu has set sit in direct tension with the ceasefire his own administration helped broker with Iran.
How the Ceasefire Came About
Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was the primary channel between Washington and Tehran throughout the crisis, facilitating phone calls between US and Iranian leadership, carrying proposals between both capitals, and hosting direct US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad last weekend. It was Munir who received Trump's 7 April threat — that Iran's "civilisation would die" unless a deal was struck — and delivered it to Tehran's leadership. Within hours, a ceasefire framework was agreed. Trump called Munir's efforts "fantastic" even as the US imposed a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz that threatened to unravel the agreement.
"Field Marshal Munir is the driving force — without him this would not work," said Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan's former ambassador to the UN, US, and UK. "The foreign ministry is just a junior partner. Countries like Iran and the US have this confidence in Asim Munir. Our government ministers are really an adjunct."
Munir travelled to Tehran on Wednesday carrying a new framework proposal from Washington for a fresh round of talks in Islamabad. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif simultaneously toured Saudi Arabia — which has its own stake in Gulf stability — to line up regional backing for the mediation effort.
Hezbollah's entry into the conflict in early March — firing rockets into Israel in what it said was retaliation for the killing of Iran's supreme leader and Israeli strikes on Lebanon — triggered the Israeli ground offensive into southern Lebanon that the current ceasefire pauses. The group's military wing is not part of Lebanon's official state structures, which has complicated every diplomatic arrangement since.
Netanyahu's Red Lines
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said the IDF "holds and will continue to hold" all positions in southern Lebanon, and that Israel will not withdraw from the occupied zone — up to 30 kilometres inside Lebanese territory near the Litani River — until Hezbollah disarms. Katz also said all houses in Lebanese villages near the border would be demolished. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called the ceasefire "a gateway to proceeding with negotiations" and demanded Israeli troop withdrawal from all occupied southern territories as a precondition. But Hezbollah's senior leader Wafiq Safa told the BBC the group will "never, ever" disarm until a full Israeli withdrawal, the return of prisoners, and reconstruction of Lebanon are completed. "Not until then," Safa said, "is it possible to talk about Hezbollah's weapons."
The ceasefire does not mention Hezbollah by name in Trump's announcement — reflecting the group's position outside Lebanon's official state structures, even as it remains the dominant military actor in the south. UN figures show more than 1.2 million people have been displaced across Lebanon, most from the south.
Israeli public opinion is sharply opposed to the truce. A poll by Israel's Channel 12 found almost 80% of respondents supported continued strikes on Hezbollah. Three separate surveys showed a majority of Israelis also opposed the US-Iran ceasefire. "Residents of the north are not extras in an international public relations show," said Moshe Davidovich, head of the Mateh Asher Regional council. Inside Israel's security cabinet, the announcement came with just five minutes' notice, according to Israeli media; ministers were not given a vote.
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot — now a political opponent of Netanyahu — offered a cutting summary: "A pattern has developed in which ceasefires are imposed upon us — in Gaza, in Iran, and now in Lebanon. Netanyahu does not know how to convert military achievements into diplomatic gains."
Hezbollah, for its part, has signalled willingness to participate in the ceasefire but insists on "a comprehensive halt to attacks" across Lebanon and "no freedom of movement for Israeli forces."
The Broader US-Iran Ceasefire
Trump said on Thursday that face-to-face talks with Iran could resume "as early as this weekend" and that he was not sure an extension to the ceasefire would be necessary — an assessment Tehran has not confirmed. The US president also claimed that Iran had agreed to surrender its enriched uranium as part of the deal; Iran has not publicly commented on this claim. Trump has offered shifting timelines on the conflict's duration throughout the seven-week campaign.
The broader ceasefire has produced concrete steps: Iran confirmed on Friday that Hormuz is open to all commercial shipping. But core issues — the future of Iranian uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, and the status of Hezbollah — remain unresolved. Iran's foreign ministry welcomed the Lebanon ceasefire as an act of "solidarity" with the Lebanese people.
Congressional Democrats' effort to constrain Trump's war powers failed again on Thursday when a House resolution died on a 213-214 vote. Only Representative Thomas Massie, a Republican from Kentucky, crossed party lines to support it. A similar Senate measure failed 47-52 on Wednesday. The resolutions were largely symbolic — Trump would veto either — but the narrow margins signal that Republican opposition could shift if the conflict widens or persists. Federal law requires congressional authorisation to continue military actions beyond 60 days; that deadline is approaching.
The Vatican Weighs In
The ceasefire negotiations have also generated an unusual diplomatic dispute — between the White House and the Vatican. Pope Leo XIV, the first North American pontiff, called Trump's threat that "a whole civilisation will die tonight" unless Iran made a deal "truly unacceptable" and a violation of international law. The Pope — who wrote his doctoral thesis on Saint Augustine's doctrine of just war — said Christ's teaching rejected war and that God "does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war."
Vice President JD Vance, a recent Catholic convert with no academic background in theology, delivered a rebuttal at a Turning Point USA event at the University of Georgia on 14 April, arguing that "more than a 1,000-year tradition of just-war theory" supported the US position. "If you're going to opine on matters of theology, you've got to be careful," Vance told the Pope. The exchange drew widespread mockery on social media, with critics accusing Vance of "popesplaining" theology to the pontiff. Cardinal Robert McElroy of Washington DC later said the US-Israel attack on Iran had failed the basic criteria of just-war tradition, specifically the requirement for "right intention."
The View From Tehran
Tehran's residents are returning to a city defined by destruction. Mehdi, 36, an IT professional who fled to the north, returned to find his home's windows blown out and his street hit by three missiles in seconds. "There's a whistling sound I hope you never hear — a missile so close that you don't know if it's going to hit your house or your neighbour's," he said. His neighbourhood's fast food restaurant, a clinic, and a childhood garden have all been destroyed.
A 45-day internet blackout has cut most of the population off from the world, disrupting online livelihoods that an estimated 10 million Iranians depend on. Food prices have risen sharply — dairy by more than 40%, with red meat and fish now unaffordable for many. Pharmaceutical production centres and hospitals have been hit, compounding difficulties for patients with chronic illnesses. Banks, international businesses, and government offices struggle to operate with disrupted internet.
Arash, 21, a student who drove out after 10 days of bombing, said the lack of information caused by the blackout was as frightening as the strikes themselves. "I am trapped between two wars," he said.
The ceasefire holds — but on multiple fronts, it is held together by pressure rather than consensus. Pakistan's generals are managing the diplomacy. Trump is managing the news cycle. The Vatican is objecting in theological terms. And the people of Beirut, Nahariya, and Tehran are waiting to find out whether this is a pause — or a beginning.
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Key Claims:
- Iran opened Hormuz to all commercial shipping for the ceasefire duration (Araghchi, X, 17 April)
- 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire took effect at 21:00 GMT on 16 April (BBC)
- Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir was primary channel for US-Iran talks; hosted direct negotiations in Islamabad (Guardian, 17 April)
- Israel refuses to withdraw from southern Lebanon; Hezbollah refuses to disarm (Israel Katz / Wafiq Safa, BBC)
- 1.2 million+ displaced across Lebanon; 45-day internet blackout in Iran (UN figures, Guardian)
- Channel 12 poll: ~80% of Israelis support continued strikes on Hezbollah (Channel 12/Guardian)
- House war powers resolution failed 213-214; only one Republican crossed party lines (BBC/Congressional record, 16 April)
- Pope Leo XIV called Trump's "civilisation would die" threat "truly unacceptable" and a violation of international law (Guardian)
- JD Vance told the Pope to "be careful" on theology; Cardinal McElroy said the attack failed just-war criteria (Guardian)
- US-Israel campaign began approximately seven weeks ago; 60-day congressional authorisation deadline approaching (Congressional record)
Sources: BBC, The Guardian, Reuters, Congressional record
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