US-Iran Ceasefire Ends Six-Week Hormuz Blockade — Fragile Truce Opens Door to Islamabad Talks
After 40 days of war, a two-week ceasefire gives exhausted parties room to negotiate — but Israel's separate assault on Lebanon threatens to unravel the agreement
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WASHINGTON/ISLAMABAD/TEHRAN — The United States and Iran agreed late Tuesday to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, bringing an uneasy end to six weeks of conflict that had seen Iran blockade the Strait of Hormuz — the world's most critical oil shipping chokepoint — and Trump threaten the "destruction of their whole civilisation" if Tehran did not stand down. Iran had imposed the blockade in response to US and Israeli strikes on its territory, framing it as a defensive measure to choke off the revenues funding the offensive; the US and Israel characterised it as illegal economic warfare.
Trump announced the agreement barely two hours before his own deadline for Iran to reopen the waterway. Under the deal's terms, Iran has committed to ending its blockade and providing safe passage through the Hormuz Strait, through which roughly 12 million barrels of crude oil pass daily. Administration officials say the US has held its offensive operations in abeyance while talks proceed.
The ceasefire is fragile. Speaking from Budapest during a visit to Hungary, Vice President JD Vance said Trump was "impatient" to reach a final deal, but cautioned that not all elements within Iran's system were acting in good faith. "In the response that we've seen from various segments of Iran, you have on the one hand, people within Iran who responded very favorably... and then you have some people on social media within their system who are basically lying about what we've accomplished militarily," Vance said. "They're lying about the nature of the ceasefire. That's why I describe it as fragile."
Israel Extends War to Lebanon — Ceasefire Under Strain
The Iran-US ceasefire does not extend to Lebanon — and that carve-out is the single greatest threat to the agreement's survival. Israel announced Wednesday that its operations against Hezbollah would continue, with the Israeli military confirming its assault on Lebanon proceeds despite the truce agreed between Washington and Tehran. "The ceasefire with Iran does not include Lebanon," an Israeli military spokesperson said, according to France 24. Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory continued Wednesday, raising the question of whether Iran will regard those strikes as covered by the ceasefire's "end to attacks" condition — or as grounds to walk away from it.
Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, said Tehran would cease counter-attacks and provide safe passage through the waterway — but only if attacks against it stopped. Japan joined diplomatic efforts Wednesday, with Economy Minister Takaichi Sanae calling directly for ships' safe passage through the Strait in talks with the Iranian president, underscoring how acutely energy-importing nations in Asia are watching the Hormuz situation.
Turkey meanwhile detained 10 suspects over Tuesday's gun attack outside the Israeli consulate in Istanbul — including two wounded assailants being questioned in hospital and eight others arrested in coordinated operations in Istanbul and Kocaeli. Interior Minister Mustafa Ciftci said the three attackers had links to a group that "exploits religion," without naming a specific organisation. One attacker, Yunus Emra Sarban, had assets frozen in 2021 for alleged financial networks linked to the Islamic State. No Israeli diplomats were present at the consulate at the time; most evacuated after October 7, 2023. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack condemned the attack on the consulate.
If Israel's parallel campaign in Lebanon draws an Iranian-backed response, or if Tel Aviv uses the Hormuz reopening as cover to sustain military pressure, the ceasefire could collapse within days.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said he had invited Iranian and American delegations to meet in Islamabad on Friday — a date confirmed by Iran on Wednesday, with President Masoud Pezeshkian "reaffirming Iran's participation" in the talks, according to a statement from Sharif's office. US officials are expected to lead the American delegation, though Washington had not formally confirmed its attendance as of Wednesday evening.
The Russia Angle
Russia said it welcomed the ceasefire and expressed hope it would allow the US to resume negotiations over Ukraine — a statement European capitals are watching closely given three years of insistence that Moscow cannot be trusted as a negotiating partner. Separately, Politico Europe reported Wednesday that Hungary and Russia had agreed to strengthen economic and cultural ties in a December cooperation plan, prompting the European Union to formally warn that Russia remains "an unreliable partner."
The conflict has been a financial windfall for Moscow. Bloomberg reported Wednesday that Russia shipped 3.35 million barrels a day of crude in the four weeks to April 5, with the value of oil exports hitting its highest since June 2022, as Middle East disruption drove global prices to multi-year highs and refiners scrambling for non-Iranian Gulf supplies increased demand for Russian barrels.
The Thai Cargo Ship Attack
Three crew members of a Thai-flagged cargo vessel were killed and several others wounded in an attack in the Gulf of Oman, Thai authorities confirmed Wednesday. The vessel, attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, is among the casualties of six weeks of undeclared maritime warfare that preceded the ceasefire. The attack occurred before the ceasefire took effect but underscores the risks still present in Gulf waters.
French Hostages Released
France confirmed Wednesday that two of its nationals held in Iran had been released. Paris stressed there was no link between the release and the ceasefire or broader Mideast conflict — a clarification that suggests France sought to avoid any impression it had leveraged the crisis to extract diplomatic concessions.
What Happens Next
The Friday Islamabad talks represent the first direct US-Iranian diplomatic contact at the negotiating level since the war began. The two-week ceasefire clock is already running: both sides will be under pressure to show concrete progress before the truce expires. The fundamental question — whether Iran permanently abandons its nuclear programme and regional militia networks in exchange for sanctions relief and security guarantees — remains entirely unresolved.
For now, the Hormuz is open. Oil markets will take weeks to stabilise. And in Beirut, Damascus, and Tehran, populations exhausted by six weeks of war are watching to see whether this pause becomes something more durable — or whether the guns merely reload.
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Sources: Bloomberg Politics, Daily Maverick, France 24, Politico Europe, South China Morning Post, Premium Times Nigeria, The Hindu, Financial Times, Japan Times, The Times of Israel
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